Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 204.350169 247.846029 301.593915 374.066744 471.093512 5.993104e+02 7.865168e+02
2025-06-15 163.509130 217.669445 293.802279 413.129648 604.587081 9.182521e+02 1.517474e+03
2025-06-22 132.892966 187.723357 271.592113 417.525216 685.403751 1.207590e+03 2.480399e+03
2025-06-29 114.953423 170.135235 260.467344 432.041308 786.839308 1.602901e+03 4.179663e+03
2025-07-06 99.260667 152.018538 242.863495 427.482313 847.830387 1.962956e+03 6.480787e+03
2025-07-13 93.194670 148.253087 248.628363 469.342077 1034.463245 2.841096e+03 1.346196e+04
2025-07-20 87.447035 143.725362 251.568200 506.183740 1234.778836 4.055218e+03 3.019991e+04
2025-07-27 81.683705 138.010117 250.658504 533.861237 1431.935417 5.642737e+03 7.428106e+04
2025-08-03 75.972831 131.372450 246.268254 551.392530 1613.725059 7.629449e+03 2.094914e+05
2025-08-10 70.207505 123.707738 238.018247 555.846516 1755.978716 9.868756e+03 7.034626e+05
2025-08-17 64.244961 114.805433 225.288598 543.492205 1824.780517 1.188906e+04 2.781700e+06
2025-08-24 58.927561 106.571878 212.705634 527.888505 1871.849851 1.404226e+04 2.162921e+07
2025-08-31 53.894888 98.560500 199.864127 509.551686 1905.493842 1.653966e+04 1.179362e+10
2025-09-07 53.057372 99.461839 209.048839 567.094381 2409.723378 3.093317e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 49.984198 95.020347 203.855737 573.517240 2636.224126 4.456269e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 47.824508 92.364949 202.869867 595.509820 3010.947195 7.434635e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 44.859020 87.503987 195.082238 588.572698 3171.666153 1.044288e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 44.404934 88.468329 203.660233 652.570747 4070.834496 3.000741e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 43.605614 88.496657 209.612239 709.561443 5102.277238 1.121655e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 42.418160 87.419486 212.088515 752.769717 6163.359763 6.422770e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 40.926814 85.402884 211.310110 780.308393 7161.857635 1.080143e+08 NaN
2025-11-02 39.125862 82.400993 206.898119 787.325515 7909.939272 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 36.973945 78.285496 198.251623 767.882201 8149.114628 NaN NaN